Penn State Nittany Lions vs West Virginia Mountaineers Betting Pick & Prediction 8/31/24

At 12:00 ET, Penn State and West Virginia will face off at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, with FOX handling the TV broadcast. Penn State is the -9.5-point favorite on the road in this week one non-conference matchup. The money line odds are -418 for Penn State and +307 for West Virginia, with the over/under line set at 51.5 points.

PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS VS WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS BETTING PICK

The Pick: West Virginia Mountaineers +9.5

This game will be played at Milan Puskar Stadium at 12:00 ET on Saturday, August 31st.

WHY BET THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS:

• We have the Penn State Nittany Lions winning this one by a score of 31 to 23
• Even though we like the Penn State Nittany Lions to win, our ATS pick is to take the West Virginia Mountaineers at +9.5
• Look for this game to go over the line of 51.5 points

Will The Penn State Nittany Lions Win As Road Favorites?

Penn State enters the season with the 6th best power ranking after finishing last season with a 10-3 record. The Nittany Lions have a 99.1% chance of being bowl-eligible and a 22.2% chance of winning the Big Ten, according to our projections. Their odds to make the college football playoff are at 59.1%, and they have a 13.3% chance of making the National Championship game.

Last season, Penn State was 8-3 as the favorite and 2-0 as the underdog. They are currently +458 to win the Big Ten, giving them an 18% implied chance, which is the 3rd best among all teams in the conference.

Julian Fleming, who transferred from Ohio State, is one of the top new additions to the Penn State receiving corps this season. Last year, the Nittany Lions’ passing game averaged 215 yards per game, placing them 72nd in the country. Overall, Penn State was 16th in the nation in scoring, putting up 36.2 points per game. Their success was driven by a strong running game, which averaged 186.4 yards per game (32nd), led by Kaytron Allen, who rushed for 902 yards and six touchdowns.

At the quarterback position, Drew Allar returns after throwing for 2,631 yards and 25 touchdowns last season. Allar was efficient, throwing just two interceptions and finishing with a passer rating of 102 (27th in the country). He completed 60.1% of his passes for the season.

Opposing quarterbacks had a tough time against the Penn State defense last season, as they held them to a passer rating of just 70.1, which was the 15th lowest in the country. Overall, Penn State allowed just 13.5 points per game, putting them 4th in the nation. Their run defense was especially strong, giving up only 77.7 rushing yards per game, the 5th best mark in college football. In the passing game, they allowed 172.1 yards per game (23rd).

Are The West Virginia Mountaineers Going Win In At Upset At Milan Puskar Stadium

West Virginia is currently +725 to make it to the Big 12 Conference final, ranking 10th among the 16 teams in the conference. The futures market gives them a 12% chance of appearing in the Big 12 title game. Our power rankings place the Mountaineers 35th in the nation, with a 64.1% chance of being bowl-eligible.

Last season, West Virginia finished with a 9-4 overall record, going 6-1 at home and 3-3 on the road. They enter this season with the 8th best odds to win the Big 12, according to futures markets (+1680), after being 5-0 as underdogs and 4-4 as favorites. Their success as underdogs helped them to a strong season last year.

West Virginia’s passing game was less effective than their rushing attack last season, as they ranked 76th in passing yards per game and 32nd in scoring, averaging 31.5 points per game. The Mountaineers were much stronger on the ground, ranking 7th in rush yards per attempt and 6th in rushing yards per game, averaging 230.3 yards. Quarterback Garrett Greene, who threw for 2406 yards and 16 touchdowns last season, is the top returning quarterback for the Mountaineers.

Jahiem White, who rushed for 842 yards last season, is back to lead the ground game for West Virginia. The team also added Jaden Bray, a transfer from Oklahoma State, to bolster the receiving corps, which lost its top receiver from last season. The Mountaineers will look to improve their 53.8% completion percentage, which ranked 89th in the nation.

West Virginia’s defense ranked 117th in passing yards allowed per game last season, giving up 236.8 yards through the air. On the ground, they allowed 145.2 rushing yards per game, placing them 70th in the nation. Overall, the Mountaineers finished 57th, allowing 26.2 points per game. Quarterbacks had a passer rating of 92.9 against them, putting West Virginia 108th in the country.