North Carolina Tar Heels vs Minnesota Golden Gophers Betting Pick & Prediction 8/29/24

Minnesota is the -2.5 point favorite in the upcoming week one non-conference matchup against North Carolina, which is set to kick off at 8:00 ET from Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. The over/under line is currently at 50.5 points. The game will be broadcast on FOX, and this is the first game of the season for both teams. The money line odds are +111 for North Carolina and -136 for Minnesota.

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS VS MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS BETTING PICK

The Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels +2.5

This game will be played at Huntington Bank Stadium at 8:00 ET on Thursday, August 29th.

WHY BET THE NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS:

• We have the Minnesota Golden Gophers winning this one by a score of 29 to 28
• Even though we like the Minnesota Golden Gophers to win, our ATS pick is to take the North Carolina Tar Heels at +2.5
• Look for this game to go over the line of 50.5 points

Will The North Carolina Tar Heels Pick Up A Win On The Road?

North Carolina is 42nd in our pre-season power rankings, with an 83.8% chance of being bowl-eligible this season. Last year, the Tar Heels finished with an 8-5 record, going 7-1 at home and 1-4 on the road. They were favored in 11 of their 13 games, going 7-4 as the favorite and 1-1 as the underdog.

This season, the Tar Heels have a 4.3% chance of winning the Atlantic Coast Conference, according to our pre-season projections. In the futures market, they are listed at +2720 to win the conference, giving them an implied probability of 4%, which ranks 8th out of the 17 teams in the conference.

North Carolina’s offense was effective on third down last season, converting 48.7% of their opportunities (9th in the country). The Tar Heels also ranked 21st in scoring, putting up 34.5 points per game. Their passing game was a big part of their success, averaging 298.5 yards per game through the air, which was 13th best in the nation. On the ground, they averaged 192.5 yards per game, led by Omarion Hampton, who rushed for 1504 yards and 15 touchdowns last season.

Heading into the season, Omarion Hampton has the 5th best odds to win the Doak Walker Trophy. North Carolina also added quarterback Max Johnson, who threw for 1452 yards last season at Texas A&M. Conner Harrell, who threw for 270 yards last season, is also back for the Tar Heels.

North Carolina’s defense allowed 27.3 points per game last season, placing them 63rd in the nation. They had particular trouble defending the pass, giving up 241.2 passing yards per game (128th). On the ground, they allowed 164.5 rushing yards per game, ranking 116th in college football. Quarterbacks had a passer rating of 137.7 against the Tar Heels last season.

Will The Minnesota Golden Gophers Win At Home Over The North Carolina Tar Heels?

Minnesota is 61st in our pre-season power rankings after finishing last season with a 6-7 record. The Gophers were 5-3 at home but struggled on the road, going 1-4. They were favored in eight of their 13 games, going 3-5 as the favorite and 3-2 as the underdog.

Heading into this season, we are giving Minnesota a 44.4% chance of being bowl-eligible. However, their odds to win the Big Ten are currently at just +21666, placing them 15th out of 18 teams in the conference. Our power rankings give them only a 0.1% chance of winning the Big Ten.

Minnesota’s passing game was a major weakness last season, as they averaged just 143.4 yards per game through the air, ranking 118th in the country. Overall, the Gophers averaged 20.9 points per game, placing them 83rd nationally. Their struggles on third down were a big factor, as they converted only 35.2% of their third down opportunities (99th).

On the ground, the Gophers were more effective, ranking 61st in rushing yards per game. Darius Taylor, who rushed for 799 yards and five touchdowns, is their top returning running back. They also added Sieh Bangura from Ohio, who ran for 811 yards last season.

Minnesota’s defense allowed 26.7 points per game last season, ranking them 61st in the nation. They struggled against the run, giving up 149.5 rushing yards per game, and their pass defense was also a weakness, ranking 85th in passing yards allowed. Opposing quarterbacks had a collective passer rating of 88.8, and the Gophers allowed a completion percentage of 61.3% (95th).