Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick & Prediction 8/17/24

From Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, we have the Royals and Reds facing off in an interleague matchup. Saturday’s forecast in Cincinnati calls for temperatures in the low 90s and partly cloudy skies. First pitch is set for 6:40 PM ET.

The Reds are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -129 compared to the Royals at +109. The over/under line is currently 9.5 runs, and Nick Lodolo is starting for the Reds, while the Royals are going with Michael Wacha. Kansas City is 67-55, while the Reds are 60-62.

CINCINNATI REDS VS KANSAS CITY ROYALS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline -129

This game will be played at Great American Ball Park at 6:40 ET on Saturday, August 17th.

HOW TO BET THE ROYALS VS REDS:

• We have the Reds winning by a score of 6 to 5
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Royals to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over

Thanks to a four-run 9th inning for the Royals’ offense, they cruised to a 7-1 win over the Reds in the most recent game of this series. Heading into the game, the Royals were at +123 on the money line.

The starting pitching matchup for this game featured Michael Lorenzen for the Royals, and he went just 5 2/3 innings while giving up one run and striking out three. Nick Martinez got the start for the Reds and went six innings, giving up three earned runs.

Kansas City got a huge performance from Bobby Witt Jr., as he went 3/4 with a home run and scored three times. Both Vinnie Pasquantino and Freddy Fermin each drove in two for the Royals’ offense.

Royals Records & Stats

Kansas City is 67-55 overall and 5.0 games behind the Twins for 2nd place in the AL Central. So far, they have been good against other teams in the division, putting up a record of 26-13. The Royals are also five games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead.

At home, the Royals have gone 38-25 this year, and they are just above .500 at 29-30 on the road. Kansas City has won two straight games, and they are 17-20-2 in series this year. As the underdog on the road, the Royals are 14-21 compared to a mark of 39-23 as the favorite.

When the Royals are on the road, they have been a solid bet against the run line, going 32-27 on the season. They have been even better as the underdog, going 36-24. In their last two games, they have covered the run line, and their average scoring margin on the road is +0.4 runs per game.

The Royals are on the road against the Reds today, with the over/under line set at 9.5 runs. The combined run average in their games this season is 8.8 runs, and their over/under record is 55-64. The average over/under line in their games is 8 runs, and when the line is set at 9.5 runs, their over/under record is 5-6. Only 4.9% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9.5 runs, while 86.1% have had lower lines. Their current under streak is at 2 games.

Michael Wacha gets the start for the Royals today as he faces off against the Reds on the road. So far this season, he has made 21 starts and has a record of 9-6 to go along with a 3.50 ERA. Wacha’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.22, and he has turned in 11 quality starts. In his last outing, Wacha picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up two earned runs on six hits. He has allowed two homers in each of his last three outings. Looking back further, Wacha has allowed at least one homer in five straight starts.

So far this season, the Royals are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.3 runs per contest. As a team, the Royals are batting .255, which is 6th in the MLB, and are also the 2nd toughest team to strike out against. Kansas City’s team on-base percentage is 12th in the league, and they are 8th in slugging.

Bobby Witt Jr. comes into the game with a team-high 25 home runs and is batting .352 for the season. Over his last 10 games, he has gone 17/40 with five homers and 11 RBIs. Salvador Perez has also been a big power threat for the Royals this season, as he is 2nd on the team with 22 homers and is batting .278.

Reds Records & Stats

Cincinnati is 60-62 overall, which has them 10.0 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead. The Reds are also 10.0 games behind the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot. So far, they have gone 18-17 in divisional games. The Reds are hoping to bounce back after falling to the Royals in the first game of the series.

At home, the Reds are 31-32 this year and 29-30 on the road. As the favorite, Cincinnati has gone 31-27 and 29-35 as the underdog. So far, they have an overall series record of 15-21-3.

When betting the run line in Cincinnati Reds games, it’s been a profitable strategy overall, as they have a 66-56 run line record this season. They have been especially good on the run line on the road, going 37-22, compared to 29-34 at home. The Reds have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 40-24, compared to 26-32 as the favorite. Their average run differential in winning games is +3.8, while in losing games, it’s -2.9.

When the Cincinnati Reds play at home, the over/under line is set at 9.5 runs, and the over has hit in 18 of their 28 games with that line this season. Their games have averaged 8.5 runs per game, and their overall over/under record is 55-63. This season, the average over/under line for Reds games is 9 runs, and only 4.1% of their games have had higher lines than today’s 9.5-run total.

Cincinnati is sending Nick Lodolo to the mound today vs. the Royals, and he comes into the game with a record of 9-4 and ERA of 3.99. Lodolo has made 19 starts this year and has pitched well, turning in eight quality starts. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. The left-hander’s ERA at home is 5.24 compared to 3.11 on the road.

Elly De La Cruz has been a bright spot in the Reds lineup this season, as he is batting .261 and leads the team with 21 home runs. His 52 RBIs are also 3rd on the team. Spencer Steer is also near the top of the Reds home run leaderboard, with 18 homers, but his batting average is just .234. However, Steer has gone 4/14 in the team’s last five games, with two homers and seven RBIs.

As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.5 runs per game and are 10th in the league in home runs. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.5 runs per contest. Currently, Tyler Stephenson and Nick Martini are both on three-game hitting streaks.