New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick & Prediction 7/26/24

From Fenway Park in Boston, we have the Yankees and Red Sox facing off in an AL East matchup. First pitch for Friday’s matchup is set for 7:10 PM ET. The money line odds have the Yankees at -126 compared to the Red Sox at +107. The over/under line is currently 9.5 runs.

New York is 60-44 this season, while the Red Sox are 54-47 overall. Boston will be looking to end a two-game losing streak. Friday’s starting pitching matchup features Nestor Cortes for the Yankees and Brayan Bello for the Red Sox.

BOSTON RED SOX VS NEW YORK YANKEES BETTING PICK

The Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline +107

This game will be played at Fenway Park at 7:10 ET on Friday, July 26th.

HOW TO BET THE YANKEES VS RED SOX:

• We have the Red Sox winning by a score of 6 to 5
• If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Red Sox to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over

Yankees Records & Stats

The Yankees will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Mets with a 12-3 loss. New York was actually the heavy favorite at -171 at home but fell behind big early, as the Mets scored six times in the 4th.

Offensively, the Yankees only had three fewer hits than the Mets but scored just three runs. All of their runs came in the 1st and 3rd innings. Gleyber Torres had a big game, going 2/5 with a homer and two RBIs.

At 60-44, the Yankees are 2nd in the AL East this season, two games behind the Orioles for the division lead. New York is heading into today’s game having dropped two straight games, losing the final two games of their series vs. the Mets. In the AL East, they have gone 18-21 this season.

So far, the Yankees have been really good on the road, going 33-21 compared to 27-23 at home. As the road favorite, the Yankees are 20-17 this season, and they are 46-38 when favored overall. The team’s overall series record is 18-10-4 this year.

When the Yankees are favored, they are 38-46 against the run line, but when they are the underdog, they are 16-4. Their average run margin in winning games is 4.1, while in losses, it is -3.4. Their overall run line record is 54-50, and they have covered the run line in 31 of 54 road games this season.

Today’s over/under line for the Yankees-Red Sox game is set at 9.5 runs, which is higher than their combined run average of 8.9 runs per game this season. The over/under record for Yankees games this season is 54-46, and their average over/under line is 8 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 9.5 runs this season, the over has hit in 5 of 8 games. Overall, only 2 of the 104 games the Yankees have played this season have had over/under lines set at 9.5 runs, which is just 1.9% of their games.

New York is sending Nestor Cortes to the mound today vs. the Red Sox, and he comes in with a record of 4-9 and an ERA of 3.99. So far this year, he has made 21 starts, and opponents are batting .244 off the left-hander. Cortes has made nine quality starts this year, and his ERA at home is 2.84 compared to 6.31 on the road. In his last outing, he gave up six earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. Cortes has taken the loss in each of his last two outings.

So far this season, the Yankees have been one of the league’s most potent offenses, averaging 4.9 runs per game (4th) and are 2nd in the league in home runs. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .247, which is 10th in the league, and have the best walk rate in the league.

Juan Soto and Aaron Judge have been the team’s top power threats this season, with Judge’s 35 homers leading the MLB, and Soto’s 26 long balls coming in as the 4th most in the league. Soto is also hitting .311 for the season and has gone 13/25 with three homers over his last six games. Giancarlo Stanton comes into the game on a 10-game hitting streak.

Red Sox Records & Stats

Boston closed out their series vs. the Rockies with a 20-7 loss. Heading into the game, the Red Sox were the slight favorite at -145 on the money line. Things really got away from the Red Sox in the 3rd inning, as the Rockies scored 10 runs in the inning. Boston’s offense scored their only seven runs in the 2nd.

Nick Pivetta got the start for the Red Sox and took the loss. He only lasted 2 2/3 innings, giving up seven earned runs. Offensively, the Red Sox had 11 hits but only scored seven runs. Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers each had three hits and a home run.

Boston is 54-47 overall and is 3rd in the AL East, trailing the Orioles by 6.5 games. So far, they are 13-11 in divisional matchups. The Red Sox kick off their series vs. the Yankees, with New York just 2.0 games ahead of them in the AL East.

At home, the Red Sox are 24-25 this season and 30-22 on the road. As the underdog, Boston has dropped four straight games, and they are 23-26 as the underdog overall. When favored, the Red Sox have gone 31-21 this season, and they are on a two-game winning streak at home as the underdog. Their overall series record is 15-12-5, and they lost two straight series vs. the Rockies.

When betting the run line on the Red Sox, it’s been more profitable to take them on the road, where they are 29-23 against the run line compared to 18-31 at home. They are also 28-21 against the run line as underdogs, compared to 19-33 as favorites. Their average run differential in winning games is +4.1, while it’s -4.1 in losses.

When the Boston Red Sox play at home, the over/under line is set at 9.5 runs on average. Their games have averaged 9.2 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 48-47. When the line is set at 9.5 runs, their over/under record is 5-7. Only 9.9% of their games have had an over/under line set at 9.5 runs or higher.

Brayan Bello is getting the start for the Red Sox today vs. the Yankees and comes into the game with a record of 10-5 and an ERA of 5.27. In his 18 starts, Bello has pitched six innings of better six times and has a total of six quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Bello finished with a no-decision vs. the Dodgers, giving up three earned runs in six innings of work. Before that outing, he had won three straight starts. So far, Bello has been much better on the road, coming in with a 4.88 ERA compared to 7.72 at home.

So far this season, the Red Sox offense has been one of the league’s best, as they are 7th in home runs and 3rd in team batting average. Overall, they are averaging 4.8 runs per game, and they have been even better on the road, putting up 5.1 runs per contest. One of the reasons for their strong offensive numbers is that they have the league’s best team BABIP at .32.

Over the past nine games, Jarren Duran and Tyler O’Neill have been two of the Red Sox’s top hitters, with Duran going 17/39 (.436) with three homers and O’Neill batting .355 with four homers. Duran’s strong stretch has pushed his season average to .292, while O’Neill comes in at .267. Rafael Devers has been the team’s top power threat this season, as his 23 homers are 6th best in the league, and his 63 RBIs are 13th best.