St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Prediction 7/20/24

There appears to be a chance for rain in Atlanta on Saturday, where the Braves and Cardinals will face off at Truist Park. First pitch for this NL matchup is set for 1:07 PM ET. BSSE will be televising this one, and the Braves are the heavy favorites on the money line (-157).

The over/under line is currently at 9 runs, and Kyle Gibson will be starting for the Cardinals, while the Braves are set to go with Charlie Morton. The Cardinals are 2nd in the NL Central, and the Braves are 2nd in the NL East. Looking at the money line odds, the Cardinals are at +130.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS VS ATLANTA BRAVES BETTING PICK

The Pick: St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline +130

This game will be played at Truist Park at 1:07 ET on Saturday, July 20th.

HOW TO BET THE CARDINALS VS BRAVES:

• We have the Cardinals winning by a score of 6 to 4
• If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Cardinals to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 10 runs and like the over

Cardinals Records & Stats

The Cardinals will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Cubs with an 8-3 loss. This was especially tough, as it was the Cardinals’ third straight loss. St. Louis was actually the slight favorite at home going into the game but fell behind early, as the Cubs scored two runs in the 2nd and another two in the 3rd.

Offensively, the Cardinals only had three fewer hits than the Cubs but scored just three runs. All of their runs came in the 2nd inning. Alec Burlesson had a big game, going 2/4 with a homer and three RBIs.

St. Louis is 50-46 overall and 4.5 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead. The Cardinals’ overall record is 15-14 in divisional games. St. Louis will be on the road today, where they are 24-24 this season. They have won two straight road games, and they are 16-12-3 in series record this year.

As the road underdog, the Cardinals are 15-18 this year. They have been an even 27-23 as the favorite. St. Louis comes into today’s game with an overall series record of 16-12-3. Their most recent series came vs. the Cubs, which they split 2-2. Heading into today, the Cardinals are 5-5 over their last 10 games.

When the St. Louis Cardinals win, they win big. Their average run differential in wins is +2.5, but when they lose, they lose big, with an average run differential of -3.6. Their overall run line record is 47-49, and they are 22-26 against the run line on the road. They have covered the run line in their last two road games and are 29-17 against the run line as the underdog.

St. Louis is on the road against the Braves today, and the O/U line is set at 9. The Cardinals have a combined run average of 8.7 this season, and their O/U record is 46-47. The average O/U line for their games is 8, and when the line is set at 9, their O/U record is 8-6-1. So far this season, only 7.3% of their games have had O/U lines set at 9 or higher, and their O/U streak is at 3 games.

Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Cardinals today as he faces the Braves on the road. He has made 18 starts this season and has a record of 7-3 with an ERA of 4.16. In his 18 appearances, Gibson has turned in eight quality starts and is averaging 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Gibson finished with a no-decision after giving up four earned runs in four innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. So far, he has been much better on the road, coming in with a record of 5-1 and 3.59 ERA compared to 2-2 with a 5.17 ERA at home.

So far this season, the Cardinals are averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 23rd in the majors. They have been a bit better at home, averaging 4.2 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .245, which is 8th in the league, and their team on-base percentage of .310 is 12th in the majors. St. Louis has been below average in terms of home runs and slugging percentage.

Right fielder Alec Burleson has been the Cardinals’ top hitter this season, batting .288 with a team-high 17 home runs. He is also coming off a stretch in which he went 8/23 (.348) with three homers in his last six games. Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman are also among the league leaders in home runs, with 8 and 17, respectively. Donovan is batting .276 for the season, and Gorman is hitting just .206.

Braves Records & Stats

Travis d’Arnaud had a big game at the plate for the Braves in their most recent game vs. the Padres, going 2/3 with two homers and four RBIs. The Braves really broke things open with a three-run 6th inning. Looking at the betting lines going into the game, the Braves were the heavy favorite at -168.

Chris Sale started for the Athletics, going five innings and giving up just one run on four hits. He only had four strikeouts in the outing and got the win.

With an overall record of 53-42, the Braves are eight games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. The Braves will host the Cardinals today, and they are 14-12 in divisional games this year. Atlanta took two of three in their most recent series vs. the Padres.

At home, the Braves are 29-17 this year and have gone 24-25 on the road. As the favorite, the Braves are 49-34 and 4-8 as the underdog. Atlanta has an overall series record of 18-11-3, and they are coming off a series win vs. the Padres.

The Braves have been a run line bettor’s nightmare this season, as they are just 45-50 against the run line. They have been slightly better at home, going 21-25 against the run line. They have been a slight favorite to cover the run line, going 39-44, and their average run differential is +0.7 runs per game.

When the Atlanta Braves play at home, the over/under line is usually set lower than 9 runs. In fact, only 13.7% of their games have had an over/under line of 9 runs or higher. Their games have averaged 7.9 runs per game, and their over/under record is 33-57 on the season.

Charlie Morton will be looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Diamondbacks on July 10th, he gave up four earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work. Morton was taken deep twice in that outing. Before that, he had pitched well, picking up the win in the start before that and not giving up an earned run in either of those outings. Morton’s ERA for the season is 4.07, along with a record of 5-5. For the year, he has made seven quality starts and is averaging 8.97 strikeouts per nine innings.

Marcell Ozuna has been on a tear for the Braves, hitting .458 over his last six games with three homers and four RBIs. For the season, he is batting .303, and his 77 RBIs are 3rd in the MLB. Ozuna also leads the Braves with 26 homers. Matt Olson is 2nd on the team in RBIs (44) but has struggled with a batting average of just .229.

As a team, the Braves are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 16th in the league. Their team batting average of .241 is 10th in the league, and they are also 10th in home runs. Overall, their slugging percentage and OPS are rated as average.