Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Betting Pick & Prediction 7/11/24

Thursday’s matchup between the Nationals and Mets is set to get started at 1:10 PM ET from Citi Field in New York, where the forecast calls for light rain and temperatures in the upper 70s. SNY will be televising this game, and the Mets are the slight favorite on the money line (-138).

Washington comes in with a record of 42-51 and they will be looking to end a four-game losing streak. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs, and MacKenzie Gore is starting for the Nationals, while the Mets are going with David Peterson.

NEW YORK METS VS WASHINGTON NATIONALS BETTING PICK

The Pick: New York Mets Moneyline -138

This game will be played at Citi Field at 1:10 ET on Thursday, July 11th.

HOW TO BET THE NATIONALS VS METS:

• We have the Mets winning by a score of 6 to 5
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Nationals to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over

New York picked up a 6-2 win over the Nationals in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a huge 6th inning, scoring four of their six runs. As for the Nationals, they scored their only two runs in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Mets were favored at -203 on the money line.

Luis Severino got the win for the Mets, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up just two earned runs. He finished the game with four strikeouts and didn’t issue a walk. Jose Buttó got the save. Patrick Corbin had a rough outing for the Nationals, taking the loss after going five innings and giving up four earned runs.

Brandon Nimmo and Jose Iglesias each had two RBIs for the Mets’ offense. Mark Vientos also had a two-hit game and scored a run. Tyrone Taylor also contributed with two hits and an RBI.

Nationals Records & Stats

Washington is on a four-game losing streak, and they are 18.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. Overall, they are 42-51 and have gone 16-14 against other teams in their division. The Nationals have dropped three straight on the road, and they are 22-27 on the road this year.

As the underdog, the Nationals are 33-43 this year and 9-8 when favored. Washington’s overall series record is 11-16-2, and they have lost two straight series.

The Nationals have been a profitable run line team overall this season, going 52-41, but they have struggled to cover the run line in their last three games. They are 28-21 on the run line on the road this year, but as the favorite, they are just 8-9 on the run line.

Washington is on the road against the Mets today. The O/U line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average for Nationals games this season is 8.7 runs per game. Washington’s O/U record for the season is 44-45. When the O/U line is set at 8.5 runs, the Nationals have a 14-14 O/U record. So far this season, 33.3% of Washington’s games have had O/U lines set at 8.5 runs.

MacKenzie Gore gets the start for the Nationals today and comes into the game with a record of 6-7 and ERA of 3.83. He has made 18 starts this season and has turned in five quality starts. In his 18 appearances, Gore has a WHIP of 1.44 and is averaging 10.72 strikeouts per nine innings. Gore’s last outing came on July 6th, where he finished with a no-decision after giving up five earned runs in 3 1/3 innings of work. Before that outing, he had given up five earned runs in three straight starts. So, he will be looking to bounce back today.

The Nationals offense is averaging 4.2 runs per game this season, which is 18th in the MLB. They have been a below-average home run hitting team this season and are just 21st in the league in slugging percentage. However, they do come into the game with a collective batting average of .238, which is 13th in the league.

CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. have been the Nationals’ top power threats this season, as Abrams leads the team with 14 homers, and Garcia Jr. is right behind him with 10. Garcia Jr. has been red hot of late, going 11/24 in his last six games. Keibert Ruiz has also been swinging a hot bat, going 8/21 in his last five games.

Mets Records & Stats

The Mets are 46-45 overall and trail the Phillies by 13.5 games in the NL East. New York has picked up two straight wins and is 15-12 against other teams in the NL East. So far, they have been good both on the road (23-20) and at home (23-25).

As the home favorite, the Mets are 17-15 this year and 27-23 when favored overall. New York has been good as the underdog, putting together a mark of 19-22. The Mets have an overall series record of 13-13-5, and they are up 2-0 in the current series vs. the Nationals.

When betting the run line, the Mets have been a better play on the road this season, going 24-19 compared to 19-29 at home. They’ve covered the run line in two straight games and have been a better play as the underdog, going 24-17 compared to 19-31 as the favorite. Their average run margin in wins is +3.4, while it’s -3.4 in losses.

The Mets have been a solid over team this season, with a combined run average of 9.6 runs per game. Their over/under record is 48-40, and they have gone over the total in 15 of 24 games when the line has been set at 8.5 runs. Overall, 49.5% of their games have had lower over/under lines than today’s 8.5-run total.

Left-hander David Peterson gets the start for the Mets today vs. the Nationals and comes into the game with a record of 3-0 and ERA of 3.58. He has made seven starts this year and has three quality starts. Overall, opponents are batting .260 vs. Peterson this year. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work vs. the Pirates. Peterson has not taken a loss since May 21st vs. the Marlins. He has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings.

So far this season, the Mets are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is good for 9th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.4 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .249, which is 7th in the league, and are also 4th in home runs. Over the past six games, Brandon Nimmo has been hot, going 8/24 with three homers and seven RBIs.

Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso are both near the top of the league in home runs, with 16 and 18, respectively. Nimmo is also 10th in the league in RBIs, with 59. Collectively, the Mets offense is 4th in isolated power and has the 7th best OPS in the league.