Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Prediction 6/28/24

Friday’s matchup between the Pirates and Braves has a first pitch of 7:20 PM ET from Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. The Braves are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -179, while the Pirates are +150 underdogs. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.

Pittsburgh will be looking to extend their two-game winning streak, as they are 39-41 and 3rd in the NL Central. Atlanta, meanwhile, is 2nd in the NL East with an overall record of 44-35. SN PT will be televising Friday’s matchup.

ATLANTA BRAVES VS PITTSBURGH PIRATES BETTING PICK

The Pick: Atlanta Braves Moneyline -179

This game will be played at Truist Park at 7:20 ET on Friday, June 28th.

HOW TO BET THE PIRATES VS BRAVES:

• We have the Braves winning by a score of 5 to 4
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Pirates to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over

Pirates Records & Stats

Pittsburgh is coming off a big 6-1 win over the Reds to close out their series. Leading up to the game, they were the slight favorite at +116 on the money line. It was a three-run 2nd inning that really turned things in their favor, and the Reds could only score one run, which came in the 3rd.

Luis L. Ortiz put together a good start for the Pirates, going six innings and giving up just one earned run, and picking up the win. He also issued only one walk and struck out seven Reds batters. Rowdy Tellez had only two hits, but one of them was a home run, and the Pirates scored a total of six runs.

Pittsburgh is 39-41 overall, and they trail the Brewers by 8.5 games in the NL Central. The Pirates will be on the road to face the Braves today, and they lead the Reds by two games for 3rd place in the division. So far, they have gone 12-11 in divisional games.

At home, the Pirates are 19-20 this year and 20-21 on the road. They have won two straight games, and this came after taking the final two games of their series vs. the Reds. As the road underdog, the Pirates have gone 14-15 this year, and they are 24-23 as the underdog overall.

When it comes to the run line, the Pirates have been a solid bet on the road this season, going 24-17. They have covered the run line in two straight games and have been especially strong as the underdog, going 32-15. Their average run differential in wins is +3.0, while it drops to -3.6 in losses.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are on the road today against the Atlanta Braves, with the over/under line set at 8.5 runs. The Pirates’ games have averaged 8.6 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 38-41. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 14-11. Only 15.0% of their games this season have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or higher.

Martín Pérez gets the start for the Pirates today as he faces the Braves on the road. So far this season, he has made 11 starts and has a record of 1-3 with an ERA of 4.71. Perez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.55. Looking back at his last outing, Perez finished with a no-decision, going three innings and giving up one earned run on two hits. He has made three quality starts this year and is averaging 7.22 strikeouts per nine innings. Overall, Perez has given up nine homers this year. One positive note is that he has only walked 2.98 batters per nine innings.

So far this season, the Pirates are averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 22nd in the league. They have been even worse at home, averaging just 3.8 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .229 and have the league’s 24th ranked slugging percentage. However, they do have two hitters with at least 11 homers, with Bryan Reynolds leading the team with 13 homers and 46 RBIs. Reynolds is also batting .279 for the season and has gone 10/27 in his last seven games.

Reynolds is also on a 23-game hitting streak, which is the longest active streak in the MLB. Oneil Cruz and Andrew McCutchen are also near the top of the Pirates home run leaderboard, but both have batting averages below .240 for the season.

Braves Records & Stats

Heading into their last game vs. the White Sox, the Braves closed out the series with a 1-0 loss. This was especially tough, as they were the heavy favorite at -309. Offensively, the Braves only had three fewer hits than the White Sox but didn’t score a run. Their best chance to score came in the 1st inning, but they left the bases loaded. Atlanta’s lineup also struck out a total of seven times.

Chris Sale was excellent for the Braves, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run while striking out 11. However, the Braves still took the loss, and Sale was the hard-luck loser. The Braves also wasted a good performance from their bullpen, as Chris Martin allowed the game-winning run to score in thejson 8th.

With an overall record of 44-35, the Braves are eight games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. Atlanta lost the final two games of their series vs. the White Sox and are 12-11 in the division. The Braves have won three straight games at home, and they are 24-13 at home this year.

As for their record on the road, the Braves are 20-22 this season. So far, they have been favored in 70 games, going 41-29 in those games. As for how they have fared as the underdog, the Braves are just 3-6. Atlanta’s overall series record is 15-10-2, and they dropped their most recent series vs. the White Sox.

When the Braves win, they do so by an average of 3.7 runs per game, which is why they are 38-41 against the run line. They have been favored in 70 games and have gone 33-37 against the run line in those contests. They are 5-4 against the run line as an underdog.

When the Braves are at home, the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, and their games have averaged 8.1 runs per game this season. Overall, the over/under record in Atlanta games is 29-47, and the average line for their games is set at 9 runs. When the line has been set at 8.5 runs, the over/under record is 8-16. There have been 32 games with higher lines than 8.5 runs, which accounts for 40.5% of their games. The under has hit in the last two games for the Braves.

Charlie Morton will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing against the Yankees, where he took the loss. In that start, he went 5 2/3 innings, giving up five runs on five hits. Looking back further, Morton has given up at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts. For the season, he has made 14 starts, has a record of 4-4, and an ERA of 4.20. Opponents are batting .230 off Morton this year, and his WHIP is 1.30. Morton’s ERA at home is 4.65 compared to 4.39 on the road.

Marcell Ozuna has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 21 homers are 4th in the league and the top mark on the Braves. He also comes into the game with a strong batting average of .303 and has driven in 64 runs, which is also 4th in the MLB. Matt Olson is 2nd on the Braves with 12 homers but has a batting average of just .241.

The Braves have a few guys swinging the bat well right now, as Austin Riley has gone 8/26 in his last seven games with two homers, and Jarred Kelenic has gone 10/27 with two homers and seven RBIs in this stretch. Forrest Wall, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Michael Harris II are all on decent hitting streaks coming into the game.