Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick & Prediction 6/28/24

At 6:20 PM ET, the Marlins and Phillies will square off in an NL East matchup. This one is taking place at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia and the Phillies are the heavy favorites on the money line, with their odds sitting at -260. The Marlins are +214 underdogs, and the over/under line is at 8.5 runs.

Miami will be starting Kyle Tyler, while the Phillies are sending Cristopher Sanchez to the mound. The Marlins are 29-52 this season, while the Phillies are 53-28.

MIAMI MARLINS VS PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING PICK

The Pick: OVER 8.5 Runs

This game will be played at Citizens Bank Park at 6:20 ET on Friday, June 28th.

HOW TO BET THE MARLINS VS PHILLIES:

• We have the Phillies winning by a score of 6 to 5
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Marlins to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over

Miami picked up a 7-4 road win over the Phillies in the most recent game of this series. The Marlins had a huge 7th inning, scoring four of their seven runs. As for the Phillies, they scored their final run in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Marlins were the heavy underdogs at +248.

This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Trevor Rogers for the Marlins and Zack Wheeler for the Phillies. Rogers only went six innings but gave up just three hits and three earned runs. On the other side, Wheeler was tagged for two homers and seven hits in 6 2/3 innings of work.

At the plate, Jake Burger was the difference for the Marlins, as he went 3/5 with a homer and two RBIs. Bryan De La Cruz also had a two-hit game and drove in three runs. Rafael Marchan hit the game’s other home run for the Phillies and went 1/4.

Marlins Records & Stats

Miami is 29-52 overall, and they are 24 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. So far, they have gone just 6-17 in divisional matchups. The Marlins are on the road today, where they are 13-25 this season. They have not been much better at home, going 16-27.

As the road underdog, the Marlins are 13-25 this year, which matches their overall road record. Miami has really struggled as the favorite, going just 3-12 this year. They are 7-18-1 in series this year and have an overall record of 6-4 in their last 10 games.

When betting the run line on the Marlins, it’s best to take them as the underdog. Miami is 34-32 against the run line as the underdog, compared to just 1-14 as the favorite. The Marlins are 19-19 against the run line on the road, where they have a scoring margin of -1.2 runs per game.

The Miami Marlins are on the road today against the Philadelphia Phillies. The over/under line for today’s game is set at 8.5 runs, which is the exact combined run average for Marlins games this season. Miami’s over/under record for the season is 42-38, and when the line is set at 8.5 runs, they have a record of 15-14. So far this season, 40 of their games have had over/under lines set lower than 8.5 runs, while 12 games have had higher lines.

Kyle Tyler is getting the start for the Marlins today on the road against the Phillies. This will be his 3rd appearance of the season, with his first start coming at home against the Mariners. In that outing, he went 4 innings, giving up 2 earned runs and 3 hits. He also started the season with a 2-inning outing out of the bullpen vs. the Nationals.

So far this season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.5 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging just 3 runs per contest. Miami’s offense has been a bit better at home, averaging 4 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .232 and have the league’s worst isolated power number at .118.

Bryan De La Cruz and Jazz Chisholm Jr. have been the team’s top power threats so far, with De La Cruz leading the team with 14 homers and Chisholm Jr. right behind him with 10. De La Cruz has gone 10/37 in his last nine games, including two homers, and has driven in six runs over that stretch. Jesús Sánchez has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/31 with three homers in his last nine games.

Phillies Records & Stats

With an overall record of 53-28, the Phillies lead the NL East by eight games over the Braves. The Phillies have gone 12-7 against other teams in the NL East. So far, they have been really tough to beat at home, going 31-13 this season.

Philadelphia has won three straight series, and their overall series record is 17-7-4. As the favorite, the Phillies have gone 47-22 and 30-11 as the favorite at home. They are 6-6 as the underdog this year and have gone 22-15 on the road.

The Phillies have been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 43-38. They have been especially good at home, where they are 23-21 against the run line. Their average run margin is +1.5 runs per game, and they have been profitable as the favorite, going 37-32 against the run line.

The Phillies are at home today, and their games have averaged 8.6 runs per game this season. The Over/Under record for Philadelphia games is 35-41, and their average O/U line is 8 runs. When the O/U line is set at 8.5 runs, the record is 6-10. So far this season, 21.0% of their games have had O/U lines set at 8.5 runs or higher.

Phillies starter Cristopher Sánchez will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run. In that June 23rd start vs. the Diamondbacks, he went seven innings, picking up the win. Sánchez only gave up four hits in that outing. He has made eight starts at home, going 4-1 with a 1.66 ERA. Overall, he is 5-3 with a 2.67 ERA. Sánchez has a total of eight quality starts this year and is averaging 7.47 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, he has allowed just one homer per nine innings.

Philadelphia comes into the game as one of the league’s most potent offenses, averaging 5 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.4 runs per contest. The Phillies are also one of the league’s top home run hitting teams, and they have the 3rd best team batting average in the league.

Bryce Harper has been on a tear of late, going 9/22 in his last five games with two homers and seven RBIs. For the season, Harper is hitting .303 with 20 homers, which is 5th best in the MLB. Alec Bohm and Kyle Schwarber are also near the top of the league in RBIs, with Bohm leading the Phillies with 65 RBIs and Schwarber 49.