Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick & Prediction 6/27/24
First pitch for Thursday’s matchup between the Marlins and Phillies is set for 6:20 PM ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The Phillies are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -312 compared to the Marlins at +251. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs, and the game will be televised on NSPPH.
Philadelphia will be sending Zack Wheeler to the mound vs. a Marlins club that is starting Trevor Rogers. Miami is 28-52 overall and they are 5th in the NL East, while the Phillies are 53-27 and in 1st place in the division.
MIAMI MARLINS VS PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING PICK
The Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline +251
This game will be played at Citizens Bank Park at 6:20 ET on Thursday, June 27th.
HOW TO BET THE MARLINS VS PHILLIES:
- We have the Marlins winning by a score of 6 to 5
- If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Marlins to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over
Marlins Records & Stats
Miami is coming off a game in which they wasted several good performances. In their 5-1 loss to the Royals, Valente Bellozo was excellent on the mound, going five innings without giving up a run. They also got a big offensive performance from Huascar Brazoban, going 1-2 with a run scored.
The Marlins really missed out on a chance to pick up a win, as they were the +176 underdog on the money line. Miami’s offense scored their only run in the 2nd inning and didn Royals added another five runs in the 8th to put things out of reach. Miami’s defense also had a rough 8th inning, as all five runs were unearned.
Miami is 28-52 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East, 25 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. The Marlins have really struggled against other NL East teams, going 5-17 so far. This year, they are just 12-25 on the road compared to 16-27 at home.
The Marlins dropped two of three games in their series vs. the Royals. So far, they have an overall series record of 7-18-1. As the underdog, the Marlins are 25-40 this year, compared to 3-12 when favored.
When betting the run line, the Marlins have been a much better play as the underdog than as the favorite. They are 33-32 against the run line when getting the runs, but just 1-14 when laying them. They have been a better run line play on the road, going 18-19, compared to 16-27 at home. Their average run differential is -1.6 runs per game, and they have been outscored by 1.4 runs per game on the road and 1.8 runs per game at home.
The Miami Marlins are on the road against the Philadelphia Phillies today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The Marlins have played in 55 games this season with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs, which accounts for 68.8% of their games. Their over/under record for the season is 41-38, and their average combined run average for games this season is 8.5 runs. Their current under streak is at 3 games.
Miami is sending left-hander Trevor Rogers to the mound today vs. the Phillies. He has made 15 starts this season and has a record of 1-8 with a 4.90 ERA. Rogers’ WHIP for the season is 1.55, and opponents are batting .279 off him this season. The last time he took the mound, Rogers gave up two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work. He finished with a no-decision in that outing. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight starts. Rogers has made two quality starts this season.
So far this season, the Marlins offense is averaging just 3.5 runs per game, which is the 29th ranked scoring offense in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging just 2.9 runs per game. As a team, the Marlins are batting .230, and their team on-base percentage of .280 is also among the league’s worst. Miami’s team ISO of .118 is the worst in the league.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been a bright spot for the Marlins this season, as he is batting .264 with 10 home runs and 37 RBIs. Bryan De La Cruz has also been a solid power threat, as his 14 homers is the best mark on the team and 11th in the league. However, De La Cruz has gone just 9/38 in his last nine games.
Phillies Records & Stats
Heading into their last game vs. the Tigers, the Phillies closed out the series with a 6-2 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -167. Offensively, the Phillies scored their six runs on jsonly 12 hits and didn’t hit a home run.
Spencer Turnbull got the start for the Phillies, going three innings and giving up just one run on one hit. He only had two strikeouts in the outing and took the loss. Philadelphia’s offense scored their other five runs in the 4th and 5th innings.
With an overall record of 53-27, the Phillies lead the NL East by 8 games over the Braves. The Phillies will host the Marlins today, and they are 12-6 against other teams in the NL East. The Phillies won the final two games of their series with the Tigers and are 6-4 over their last 10 games.
At home, the Phillies are 31-12 this year, and they have gone 22-15 on the road. So far, they have been really good in night games, going 35-14 this year. As the favorite, the Phillies are 47-21, and they are 6-6 when listed as the underdog.
When the Phillies win, they do so by an average of 3.9 runs per game, and their run line record is 43-37 overall. At home, they’re 23-20 vs. the run line, and their current run line win streak is at two games. As the favorite, they’re 37-31 vs. the run line, while as the underdog, they’re 6-6.
The Phillies will host the Marlins today, and the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Phillies games this season is 8.6 runs per game, and their over/under record is 34-41. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, the Phillies are 5-10. Overall, 67.5% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs.
Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies today and comes in with a record of 9-4 and an ERA of 2.73. Looking at his overall numbers, Wheeler has made 16 starts, and opponents are batting .181 this season. In his last outing, he went seven innings, giving up just one earned run and picking up the win. Wheeler has been pitching well at home, with a record of 6-2 and an ERA of 1.81. On the road, his ERA is 5.29. One of his 12 quality starts came in his last outing. So far, he has a total of 107 strikeouts.
As a team, the Phillies are the 2nd highest-scoring team in the league, averaging 5.1 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.4 runs per contest. Overall, they are 3rd in batting average and have the 4th best on-base percentage in the league. Not only do they have a lot of home runs, but they have been very good at avoiding strikeouts, as they have the 15th fewest strikeouts per game.
Bryce Harper has been on fire of late, going 20/43 in his last 10 games with five homers and 11 RBIs. For the season, he is hitting .305 with 20 homers, which is 5th in the league. Alec Bohm and Kyle Schwarber are also having good seasons, with Bohm batting .304 and Schwarber at .250 with 17 homers.