Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Betting Pick & Prediction 5/11/24

Game three of this Western Conference first-round series between the Thunder and Mavericks is tied at 1-1 heading into Saturday’s matchup at 3:30 PM ET. Dallas is favored by 2.5 points at home and is -142 on the money line. The Thunder are +119, and the over/under line is 218.5 points. ABC is carrying this one on TV from the American Airlines Center in Dallas.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS DALLAS MAVERICKS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5

This game will be played at American Airlines Center at 3:30 ET on Saturday, May 11th.

WHY BET THE OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER:

• We have this one finishing with a projected score of 116-114 in favor of the Thunder.
• Our projections have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finishing with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists.
• From the field, we have the Thunder finishing with a field goal percentage of 49.5% and knocking down 14 threes.

The Mavericks picked up a 119-110 win in the most recent game of this series. Dallas was a 5-point underdog heading into the game, so they covered the spread as well. The game also surpassed the over/under line of 217 points, as the teams combined to score 229. The Mavericks took control of the game in the 3rd quarter, outscoring the Thunder 31-27.

Luka Doncic and P.J. Washington led the Mavericks with 29 points each. Doncic also added 7 assists and 10 rebounds while knocking down 5 threes. Washington hit 7 threes and pulled down 11 boards. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a big game for the Thunder with 33 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists.

Will the Thunder Exceed Expectations on the Road?

OKC comes into today’s game with a 57-25 record, which is the best in the Western Conference. In non-conference games, they went 21-9 compared to 36-16 against the West.

This season, the Thunder have been the underdog in 21 of their 82 games. On the road, their record as the underdog is 10-11. Their straight-up road record is 26-17.

Oklahoma City has lost their last three games as the underdog vs. the spread. Today, they are getting 2.5 points vs. Dallas. On the road, they have an ATS record of 22-21.

In their most recent game vs. the Mavericks, the Thunder lost by a score of 119-110. The O/U line for that game was 217 points, and OKC was favored by 5 points going into the game.

This season, the Thunder have an O/U record of 46-41-1. In their games, the average combined scoring total is 230.8 points, and the average O/U line is 231.

Oklahoma City comes into the game as the NBA’s 3rd ranked scoring offense, at 120.1 points per game. Despite their high-scoring ways, they have scored below the league average in 36.6% of their games. The Thunder have been one of the most efficient three-point shooting teams in the league this season, hitting 38% of their attempts from downtown.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 28.6 points per game over his last five games, while hitting 48.5% of his shots from the field. For the season, he is averaging 30.1 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.5 rebounds. Chet Holmgren is averaging 7.9 rebounds per game and 15.2 points in his last five games. Jalen Williams is averaging 20.8 points in his last five games on a field goal percentage of 50%.

On the season, the Thunder are giving up 111.5 points per game, which is 10th in the NBA. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, they are 2nd at 45.3%.

One area where Oklahoma City has excelled is in forcing turnovers. They are first in the league in steals at 8.5 per game. They are also first in blocked shots at 6.6 per contest.

Over their last five games, the Thunder have been even stingier on the defensive end. They have given up just 96 points per game during that stretch, which is 3rd in the NBA.

Are the Mavericks Ready for a Home Win?

The Mavericks have a 41-49-0 over/under record this season, and their games have averaged a combined 231.5 points per game. Today’s O/U line is 218.5, which is lower than 81 of their previous games.

Dallas has won two straight games as the favorite and has a record of 41-15 in games where they were favored. Today, they are favored by 2.5 points. As the favorite, the Mavs have gone 36-20 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +7.1 PPG.

In their most recent game against the Thunder, the Mavericks won 119-110 as 5-point underdogs. The game’s O/U line was 217 points. The Mavs are 14-20 as the favorite this season and have an ATS record of 23-21 at home.

Dallas is currently 5th in the Western Conference with a record of 50-32. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 31-21 and 11-5 in their division. On the road, the Mavericks are 28-18 compared to 27-17 at home.

Dallas comes into the game as the NBA’s 8th-ranked scoring offense, at 117.9 points per game. They are also 9th in home games, at 118 points per contest. The Mavericks have taken and made the 3rd most three-pointers this season, averaging 14.6 made threes per game. However, they are just 14th in three-point shooting percentage, at 36%.

Luka Doncic is averaging 28 points per game over his last five games, to go along with 9.8 assists and 8 rebounds. His three-point shooting has been poor in his last five games, as he hit just 23.3% of his attempts. For the season, he is averaging 4.1 made threes per game. Kyrie Irving is averaging 22.6 points per game on 50% shooting in his last five games, and 25.6 points for the year.

When it comes to points allowed per game, the Mavericks are 18th in the NBA at 114.6. At home, they are giving up 114.2 points per game, which is also 18th in the league.

In terms of three-point shooting, opponents are making 13.0 threes per game against the Mavericks, which is 18th in the NBA. On the season, opposing teams are shooting 36.8% from beyond the arc vs. Dallas.

Over their last five games, the Mavericks have been even better on defense, giving up just 107.4 points per game, which is 10th in the NBA during that stretch.