Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick & Prediction 5/4/24

At 2:10 from Target Field in Minneapolis, we have an American League matchup between the Red Sox and Twins. The Twins are sending Pablo Lopez to the mound up against Brennan Bernardino for the Red Sox. Coming into the game, the Twins are 18-13, while the Red Sox are 18-15.

Minnesota is at home and is the favorite, with money line odds of -178, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs. Looking at the forecast, there figures to be moderate rain in the area.

BOSTON RED SOX VS MINNESOTA TWINS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline +148

This game will be played at Target Field at 2:10 ET on Saturday, May 4th.

HOW TO BET THE RED SOX VS TWINS:

• We have the Red Sox winning by a score of 5 to 4
• If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Red Sox to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over

It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Twins vs Red Sox series. Minnesota went into the matchup as slight favorites at -118 and squeaked out a 5-2 win. Both teams scored one run in the first inning, and the Red Sox could only muster one more run in the 7th inning. As for the Twins, they scored the game’s go-ahead run in the 5th and tacked on two insurance runs in the 6th.

Chris Paddack got the win for the Twins, going six innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with six strikeouts but issued a season-high seven walks. Jhoan Duran got the save. Tanner Houck had a rough outing for the Red Sox, taking the loss after going six innings and giving up four earned runs.

Rafael Devers went 2/3 with two RBIs for the Red Sox, but it wasn’t enough. Willi Castro and Edouard Julien each had two RBIs for the Twins’ offense.

Red Sox Records & Stats

Boston is on the road today vs. the Twins, having lost two straight games. The Red Sox are 3rd in the AL East, 3.5 games behind the Orioles for the division lead. So far, they are 0-3 in divisional games this year.

As the favorite, the Red Sox have gone 9-5 this year and 9-10 as the underdog. On the road, they are 11-6 overall compared to 7-9 at home. Boston’s overall record is 18-15, and they have won two straight series and are 6-3-1 in series this year.

The Red Sox have been a solid run line bet this season, going 18-15 overall. They are 12-5 vs. the run line on the road, where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 2.4 runs per game. They are just 6-10 vs. the run line at home, where they have a negative run differential. As an underdog, they are 13-6 vs. the run line, compared to 5-9 as the favorite. They have covered the run line in two straight road games.

The Boston Red Sox have an over/under record of 13-17 this season, with an average combined run average of 8.1 runs per game. Their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 3-6, and they have hit the under in four straight games. The Red Sox have played in 72.7% of their games with over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs this season, and the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs.

Brennan Bernardino is getting the start for the Red Sox today and has made just one start this season. In that outing, he went 1 1/3 innings and didn’t give up a run. He finished with a no-decision in that appearance. For the season, Bernardino has made 10 appearances out of the bullpen and has a record of 0-1 with a .73 ERA. Opponents are batting just .103 off the right-hander this season. So far, he has not allowed a home run. Bernardino has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings.

Over the past nine games, Rafael Devers has been on fire for the Red Sox, going 15/32 (.469) with six runs scored and five RBIs. Devers also has a current nine-game hitting streak. Tyler O’Neill has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/37 in his last nine games, with two homers and five RBIs. O’Neill’s nine homers this season is 2nd in the league and leads the Red Sox.

As a team, the Red Sox are 13th in the league in scoring at 4.6 runs per game. They have been a good home run-hitting team this season and have a collective batting average of .245. Overall, they are 7th in team OPS and have the 7th best on-base percentage in the league. Currently, they have three players with at least 10 RBIs, led by Ceddanne Rafaela, who has 17 RBIs but is hitting just .195.

Twins Records & Stats

Minnesota is hosting the Red Sox today with an overall record of 18-13, and they have won 11 straight games. In the AL Central, they are 1.5 games behind the Guardians for the division lead. So far, they have gone 12-7 against other teams in the AL Central.

As the Twins have been favored in 21 of their games, they have gone 16-5 in those matchups. As for the games they were the underdog in, they are just 2-8. At home, the Twins have won five straight, and they are 6-4 as the home favorite this year. Minnesota’s overall series record is 4-4-2, and they have won three straight series overall and two straight on the road.

Minnesota has been a solid run line bet this season, going 16-15 overall. They have been particularly good on the road, where they are 11-7 vs. the run line. They have covered the run line in their last three home games, and they have been the favorite in 21 of their 31 games this season.

Minnesota’s over/under record for the season is 15-15, with an average over/under line of 8 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, the Twins have gone under in 3 of 5 games. Their games have averaged 9 runs per game this season, and their over/under record for the season is 15-15.

Pablo López has made two home starts this year and has a record of 0-1 at home. His ERA at home is 5.76. Overall, he is 2-2 with a 4.83 ERA. The right-hander has made two quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he gave up four earned runs in five innings of work. In that outing, he gave up one homer. López has allowed at least one homer in three of his last four outings. His WHIP for the season is 1.04, and he is averaging 10.52 strikeouts per nine innings.

As a team, the Twins are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 8th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.4 runs per contest. Minnesota’s 32 home runs is 11th in the league, and they also have the 3rd best Isolated Power (ISO) in the league. So far, they have been a good team at avoiding strikeouts, but their team batting average of .239 is just 12th in the league.

Willi Castro has been hot of late, going 10/20 in his last five games, but he has yet to go deep this season. Edouard Julien has gone deep seven times, which is 4th in the league, but he is batting just .222 for the season. Ryan Jeffers has been the team’s top power threat so far, as his five homers is 2nd on the team and 6th in the league. Jeffers also leads the Twins with 21 RBIs.