Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Prediction 4/29/24

At 6:40 PM from loanDepot Park in Miami, we have an NL East matchup between the Nationals and Marlins. Heading into Monday’s game, the Nationals are 13-14, while the Marlins come in with a record of 6-23. Television coverage for tonight’s game is being handled by MASN.

The over/under line is at 8.5 runs, and the Marlins are the favorite at -154 on the money line. Jake Irvin is starting for the Nationals, and he is facing off against Trevor Rogers for Miami.

MIAMI MARLINS VS WASHINGTON NATIONALS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline -154

This game will be played at loanDepot Park at 6:40 ET on Monday, April 29th.

HOW TO BET THE NATIONALS VS MARLINS:

• We have the Marlins winning by a score of 5 to 4
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Nationals to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over

Washington rallied for five runs in the 4th inning and added two more in the 8th as they picked up a 12-9 win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. The Nationals had a huge 4th inning, scoring all five of their runs and picking up nine of their 14 hits. As for the Marlins, they scored six of their nine runs in the 1st inning.

Patrick Corbin got the start for the Nationals, going just four innings while giving up four runs and striking out four. Derek Law got the win out of the bullpen, and Kyle Finnegan got the save. Anthony Bender had a rough outing for the Marlins, taking the loss.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. hit the game’s only home run while going 1/3 with four RBIs, but it came in a losing effort. Nick Senzel and Jacob Young each had two RBIs for the Nationals’ offense.

Nationals Records & Stats

Washington is on the road today vs. the Marlins and have won three straight games. In the NL East, they are 6.5 games behind the Braves for the division lead. Overall, they are 13-14 and have gone 4-2 in divisional matchups.

At home, the Nationals are just 4-8 this year, but they have been better on the road at 9-6. As the road underdog, the Nationals have put together an 8-6 record this year. Washington has won four straight games as the road underdog. So far, they are 1-1 when favored.

Washington has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 17-10 overall. They have been particularly strong on the road, going 12-3 ATS. They have covered the run line in four straight games and are 16-9 ATS as an underdog. Their average run differential in winning games is +2.9, while it is -3.4 in losing games.

The Washington Nationals have had 11 of their 26 games go over the total this season, and their over streak is now at two games. The average combined run total in their games this season is 8.5, and when the over/under line is set at 8.5, they have gone over four times and under six times. So far, 33.3% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs.

Jake Irvin and the Nationals are on the road to take on the Marlins. Irvin is coming off a loss in his last start, where he went 4 2/3 innings and struck out 12. He picked up a win in his first start of the season, going 6 innings and striking out 6.

Washington’s offense has been a little better on the road this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. Overall, they are 19th in the league at 4.1 runs per contest. The Nationals have been one of the better home run hitting teams in the league this season, but they are just 28th in the league in home games, averaging 3 runs per contest.

Over his last four games, Jacob Young is hitting .533 with seven runs scored, but he has yet to homer this season. CJ Abrams comes into the game with a four-game hitting streak and is batting .296 for the season with six homers. Nick Senzel also has a three-game hitting streak, but he is batting just .222 for the season.

Marlins Records & Stats

Miami’s overall record is 6-23, and they are 14.5 games behind the Braves for the NL East lead. The Marlins have dropped six straight games, and this season, they are just 1-8 in divisional matchups. At home, the Marlins are only 2-14 this year.

So far, Miami has gone 0-10 as the favorite and 6-13 as the underdog. They have also struggled in night games, going 2-12 and 4-11 in day games. The Marlins’ overall series record is 0-7-1, and they have lost four straight series at home.

When the Miami Marlins are the underdog, they are a solid bet against the run line, going 9-10. They have covered the run line in six of their seven road games, but are just 3-13 at home. They have lost four straight games against the run line at home and have failed to cover the run line in their last 10 games when favored.

So far this season, the Miami Marlins have played 29 games, and 15 of those games have gone over the total. Their games have averaged 9.1 runs per game, and the over/under line for their games has been set at an average of 8 runs. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, their games have gone over 9 times and under 7 times. In their last 2 games, the over has hit.

After starting the season with a pair of losses, Trevor Rogers has put together a couple of solid outings. He is coming off a no-decision vs. the Giants, where he struck out 6 over 5 2/3 innings, allowing just 1 run. In his first start of the year, he took the loss vs. the Braves, giving up 3 earned runs over 5 innings.

Over his last nine games, Luis Arraez has been on fire for the Marlins, going 15/38. However, he has yet to hit a home run this season. Bryan De La Cruz comes into the game with a team-high five home runs, but he is batting just .261 for the season and has gone 7/35 in his last nine games. Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jake Burger are tied for the team lead with three homers.

As a team, the Marlins are batting just .224 and are 28th in the league in scoring at 3.5 runs per game. Miami’s team on-base percentage of .281 is also one of the worst marks in the league. In terms of home runs, they are 14th in the league, but this is more of a product of having a few guys with three homers, as they are near the bottom of the league in slugging percentage and OPS.