Weekend Preview of the Mutua Madrid Open
The Mutua Madrid Open, an outdoor clay court tournament, takes center stage for the next two weeks on the ATP Tour. The 96-player tournament is one of nine Masters 1000 tennis events this season and is in its 22nd year of existence. Two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is the second seed in the Madrid Open and playing in his first event in nearly a month, while 2024 Australian Open winner Jannik Sinner is the top seed. World No. 1 Novak Djokovic is the lone player in the top-10 absent from the tournament.
First-Round Recap
The top-32 seeds in the Mutua Madrid Open are still in contention as they all received byes into the second round, which begins on Friday. With that said, there have been a few notable upsets in first-round action, including wildcard Joao Fonseca beating Alex Michelsen, Pedro Cachin beating Sebastian Ofner, Facundo Bagnis winning against Brandon Nakashima in straight sets.
In other first-round action, wildcard Juncheng Shang beat Corentin Moutet in a wild 6-7 (9), 6-2, 7-6 (10) affair. Borna Coric, Denis Shapovalov, Fabian Marozsan, and Rafael Nadal all advanced. Nadal, playing in his just 10th match since the start of the 2023 season, beat American Darwin Blanch 6-1, 6-0.
Second-Round Previews and Predictions
Alexander Zverev (-495) vs. Borna Coric (+390)
Alexander Zverev, the fourth seed in the Mutua Madrid Open, is a two-time champion in Madrid and was runner-up in 2022 to Alcaraz. He has had a somewhat disappointing season, often going into the quarter-finals of tournaments but unable to win. Zverev is rightfully the betting favorite against Coric, but this is a match with strong upset potential. Coric is 3-3 in six career matches against Zverev and has an identical 2-2 record on clay this season.
Flavio Cobolli (+156) vs. Nicolas Jarry (-176)
Flavio Cobolli is into the second round after a 5-7, 6-4, 6-4 win over Alejandro Tabilo in the opening round. Like the previous match, this is one where an upset is possible. Cobolli is 18-11 this season, although some of those matches were against lesser competition, and Jarry is just 10-9 and is on a three-match losing streak. They’re 1-1 in two previous matches and Cobolli won the last meeting in five sets at the 2024 Australian Open.
Matteo Arnaldi (+203) vs. Daniil Medvedev (-243)
There’s likely no upset potential here, but at -234 odds Daniil Medvedev is a great bet to win against Matteo Arnaldi. Medvedev is 2-0 in two career matches against Arnaldi and 19-5 this season. Both of those wins were in straight sets.
Casper Ruud (-603) vs. Miomir Kecmanovic (+453)
As with the Medvedev match, there’s not a ton of upset potential here, but even at -603 odds Casper Ruud is a decent bet as he’s as close to a sure thing as there is in the second round, at least based on recent performance. He had his best start to a year playing on hard courts and won his first tournament last week at the Barcelona Open. He’s 28-7 overall this season, while Kecmanovic is 10-11.