Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Betting Pick & Prediction 4/7/24

In a matchup of two Eastern Conference teams, the Pacers (-119) host the Heat (-101) in a game with a 224.5 over/under. Indiana is favored by 1.5 points at home in a game that will be played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Tipoff is scheduled for 5:00 ET and can be seen on BSIN.

Miami currently sits 7th in the East, while the Pacers are 6th. The Heat are 43-34 overall and 2nd in the Southeast Division, while Indiana is 44-34 and 3rd in the Central.

MIAMI HEAT VS INDIANA PACERS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Indiana Pacers -1.5

This game will be played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse at 5:00 ET on Sunday, April 7th.

WHY BET THE INDIANA PACERS:

• We have this one finishing with a projected score of 113-111 in favor of the Pacers.
• Our projections have Pascal Siakam finishing with Pascal Siakam points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists.
• From the field, we have the Pacers finishing with a field goal percentage of 51.1% and knocking down 13 threes.

Is an Upset Waiting to Happen on the Road?

Miami’s O/U record for the season is 31-46, and the over has hit in their last five games. Today’s line of 224.5 is higher than 51 of their games, and their games have averaged 218.3 points.

Against the spread, Miami is 37-37 for the season, including a 22-14 record on the road. They have covered the spread in three straight road games. As the underdog, they are 16-16 vs. the spread.

The Heat are coming off a 119-104 win over the Rockets, where they were favored by 3.5 points. The combined scoring in that game was 223, and the O/U line was 217.

In the Eastern Conference, the Heat are currently in 7th place with a record of 43-34. In the Southeast Division, they are in 2nd place. Today, they are 1.5-point underdogs.

When it comes to scoring, the Heat are below the NBA average in points per game this season at 109.9 (27th). On the road, Miami is averaging 107.7 points per game (28th). However, in terms of pace, the Heat are 29th in the league.

So far this season, Miami has outscored the NBA scoring average in just 37.7% of their games. In terms of field goal percentage, the Heat are shooting 46% from the field (23rd).

From beyond the arc, Miami is 18th in three-point shooting at 37%. However, they are just 28th in two-point shooting percentage at 52%. In terms of offensive rebounds, the Heat are 26th in the league.

So far this season, the Heat defense has been performing well, ranking 3rd in the NBA at 108.4 points allowed per contest. Inside the arc, the Heat defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 55.1% and 35.8% from three-point territory.

Can the Indiana Offense Score Enough at Home?

Indiana has a 42-34 ATS record this season, including going 21-17 ATS at home. The Pacers have covered the spread in three straight home games and are favored by 1.5 points today.

Their O/U record for the season is 39-39, and 76 of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s line of 224.5. On average, Pacers games have finished with 243 points.

In their last game, the Pacers defeated the Thunder by a score of 126-112. The O/U line for that game was 235.5, and Indiana covered the spread as 6-point favorites.

Indiana’s win over Oklahoma City improved their record to 44-34 for the season. In the Eastern Conference, they are currently in 6th place and are 3rd in the Central Division. Against the East, the Pacers are 29-19 and 15-15 against non-conference opponents.

On average, Indiana’s home games have finished with a scoring margin of +6.1 points per game. The Pacers have a 24-15 record at home this season.

Heading into the game, the Pacers are the top-scoring team in the NBA at 122.8 points per game. They have been especially prolific at home, where they are averaging 124.9 points per game.

Indiana’s offense is built on their ability to get to the rim, as they lead the league in two-point field goal percentage at 58%. Overall, they are shooting 50% from the field, which is also tops in the NBA.

When it comes to three-point shooting, the Pacers are 9th in the league at 37%. However, they are only 15th in three-point attempts per game and have made an average of 13.2 threes per contest.

Coming into the game, the Pacers’ defense is giving up an average of 120.2 points per game. So far, they have given up more points than the NBA league average in 62.8% of their games. In the terms of takeaways, Pacers are causing 12.3 turnovers per game, ranking 12th in the league. They also enter the matchup ranked 8th in rejections, averaging 5.9 blocked shots each game.