Valparaiso Beacons vs Illinois State Redbirds Betting Pick & Prediction 1/14/24

Looking to win big? The Beacons and Redbirds face off at 3:00 ET on ESPN+. The Redbirds are hosting the game at CEFCU Arena in Normal, IL. The over/under for this Missouri Valley conference contest is set at 136.5 points, with the Redbirds being the favored team playing at home against the Beacons.

VALPARAISO BEACONS VS ILLINOIS STATE REDBIRDS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Valparaiso Beacons +9

This game will be played at CEFCU Arena at 3:00 ET on Sunday, January 14th.

WHY BET THE VALPARAISO BEACONS:

• We have this one finishing with a projected score of 74-70 in favor of the Redbirds.
• Even though we have Illinois State winning straight-up, we like Valparaiso at +9.
• The over/under is currently sitting at 136.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 144 points.

Do the Beacons Stand a Chance in Normal?

Valparaiso comes into today’s game against Illinois State as the underdog, and they have gone 0-10 as the underdog this season. They have lost 10 straight games overall and have a record of 4-12. On the road, the Beacons are 0-6 this year, and their average scoring margin is -11.2 points per game.

In their last game, Valparaiso lost to Southern Illinois by a score of 77-68. Over their last 10 road games, the Beacons are 0-10, and their average scoring margin is -11.2 points per game. This season, Valparaiso has a record of 0-5 in Missouri Valley Conference games.

Valparaiso has been a solid team vs. the spread this season, going 8-6-1 overall. On the road, their ATS mark is 4-1-1. As the underdog, the Beacons are 5-4-1 vs. the spread this year. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, Valparaiso has gone 5-4-1.

Valparaiso’s over/under record this season is 5-10 and today’s line of 136.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (143.3). So far, 12 of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s mark. In their last three games, the average scoring total is 141 points and their over/under record over that span is 2-1.

The Beacons’ offense finished with 68 points in their previous game, mirroring their current average of 67 points per contest. Leading the team in scoring is Isaiah Stafford, who is averaging 16.6 heading into today’s matchup. Additionally, Cooper Schwieger also maintains a PPG average of 10.3 heading into game.

On defense, Valparaiso is currently around the NCAA average in points allowed, giving up an average of 72.3 points per game. On average, opposing teams are hitting 6.8 threes per game vs. Illinois State. This has come on three-point shooting percentage of 35.8%.

Can the Illinois State Offense Score Enough at Home?

Illinois State enters today’s game against Valparaiso as a nine-point favorite. So far this season, the Redbirds have been favored in seven games and have gone 5-2 in those contests. At home, Illinois State has gone 6-2 compared to just 1-6 on the road.

Over their last 10 games at home, the Redbirds have gone 8-2. In their most recent game, Illinois State lost to Belmont by a score of 67-60. The team’s overall record this season is 8-8, and they have lost four games in a row.

Illinois State has an ATS record of 6-9 this season and is 5-3 vs. the spread at home. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Redbirds have gone 5-4-1 ATS.

So far this season, the over/under record for Illinois State games sits at 8-7. On average, their games have finished with 137.5 points compared to an average over/under line of 141.5, resulting in an average margin of -3.9 points. Today’s over/under line of 136.5 is lower than the average scoring total in their games this season, but in their last three games the average scoring total is 140 points.

In their recent matchup, the Illinois State offense ended with 60 points against Belmont. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 37% and made 5 threes. Coming into the game, the Redbirds offense has strugled with their outside shot this season, hitting threes at a rate of just 28%. On average, they get up 22.6 three-point attempts per game and are averaging 14.4 made free-throws.

Coming into today’s game, the Illinois State defense is giving up an average of 69.2 points per contest. So far, the Illinois State defense is giving up an average of 7.1 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 12.3 times per game (597th).