Texas A&M-Commerce Lions vs SMU Mustangs Betting Pick & Prediction 12/3/23

Don’t miss out on the NCAA showdown between the Lions and Mustangs. The game is starting at 3:00 ET on ESPN+, and it’s hosted by the Mustangs at Moody Coliseum in Dallas, TX. Get ready to place your bets! The odds for this non-conference game currently have the Mustangs as the betting favorite with the over/under line sitting at 137.5 points.

TEXAS A&M-COMMERCE LIONS VS SMU MUSTANGS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Texas A&M-Commerce Lions +17

This game will be played at Moody Coliseum at 3:00 ET on Sunday, December 3rd.

WHY BET THE TEXAS A&M-COMMERCE LIONS:

• We have this one finishing with a projected score of 79-64 in favor of the Mustangs.
• Even though we have SMU winning straight-up, we like Texas A&M-Commerce at +17.
• The over/under is currently sitting at 137.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 143 points.

Can the Lions Pull the Upset on the Road?

Heading into their 10th game of the season, Texas A&M-Commerce has a 4-5 record. On the road, they are 1-4, while overall they are 1-1. As of now, Texas A&M-Commerce holds a 3-4 record against the spread for the season, leading into today’s game. When playing away from home, the Lions are 2-3 vs. the spread, while they stand at 1-1 ATS in games played at home.

Up to this point, games involving Texas A&M-Commerce have had an average of 137.3 points per game, with the average over/under line set at 143.6 points. Their over/under record is 2-5-0. In their most recent three games, the Lions’ over/under record is 1-1, with their games averaging 154 points per game.

In their most recent game, the Texas A&M-Commerce offense concluded with only 61 points against Denver. Throughout the game, they made 5/21 three-point attempts and had a field goal percentage of 39.3%. On the offensive front, the Lions have a season-long field goal percentage of 43%, ranking 308th nationally. When it comes to three-point shooting, they are ranked 351st in terms of percentage and 65th in three-pointers made.

On the defensive side, Texas A&M-Commerce is currently hovering around the NCAA’s average for points allowed, conceding an average of 71.1 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Texas A&M-Commerce’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 38.2% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 30.7% this season.

Will the Mustangs Make it Happen at Home?

After eight games, SMU has a 5-3 overall record. As the road team, SMU is 1-1, and they are 3-2 at home. Looking at SMU’s ATS performance thus far, they have a 2-5 record heading into today’s game. On the road, the Mustangs are 1-1 vs. the spread, while at home they are 1-4 when it comes to covering.

After eight games, SMU has an over/under record of 1-6-0, with their games averaging a combined 135.1 points per game so far. The Mustangs’ last five games have culminated with an average of 131 points per game and an over/under record of 1-4.

The SMU offense is coming off a game in which they scored 63 points vs. Dayton. Overall their field goal percentage was 41.3% while connecting on 5 threes. Currently leading the team in scoring is Zhuric Phelps who comes into today’s matchup averaging 15.8. Chuck Harris also heads into the game with a PPG average of 13.1.

SMU’s defense has been playing well, ranking 34th nationally, with 63.9 points allowed per game. In their previous game vs. Dayton, the Flyers finished with a field goal percentage of 41% and a total of 65 points vs. SMU.